RESULTS! Local and mayoral elections: May 2017

***********LIVE RUNNING BLOG TILL ALL RESULTS ARE IN***********

For info on the numbers and runners please see part one of the local and mayoral election blog!

************RESULTS (coming in from midnight on 4th May 2017)************

The ‘pollsters’ are all gloom and doom (shock) with the intention of battering Labour. Motivation for Council results are usually different to other elections, however, and the turnout barely a third of the GE. I have seen on my own social media walls people ‘forgetting’, people not knowing who the candidates are so they didn’t (um, Google?), people saying these are not ‘real elections’. I am not about to do any ‘expectation management’, merely report the results. Though I will say it disturbs me that 14 minutes after the polls closed that ‘insiders’ at the Nottingham Council counting are already saying they’ve lost (yet their result, at 4 a.m. is still not in- and they stayed No Overall Control so stop that s**t, ok!?). This is based on knowing how each station polls, and attendance. This is too close to breaking the secrecy of the ballot for me.

The context of these council elections is vital– they last held elections in 2012 (Scotland and Wales) or 2013 (in England). If Labour gain or lose seats, we’re measuring results under Ed Miliband’s time in charge where Labour gained 291 seats and the Conservatives lost 335 seats. The Lib Dems lost just over 100 seats; they were losing popularity, perhaps due to its broken pledges on tuition fees. And UKIP gained just over 139 seats as it won momentum over the issues of the EU.

In approximate order of announcement (will add as many as possible, with summaries where they come in too fast to add, and swings and turnouts when I can but not easy when there are 4,851+ seats to be decided, with Labour holding 1535, Conservatives 1136, Lib Dems 484, Plaid Cymru 170, UKIP 146, SNP 425 and the Greens 34 seats). There are 34 English councils, and 54 Scottish and Welsh councils to confirm.

NOTE: these are SEATS, not Councils. Turnout is averaging 30%.

  1. Labour HOLD Queensferry (Flintshire).
  2. Independent GAIN Rhosnesni (Wrexham) from Labour. (Con – 285; Ind – 369; Lab 290; Ind – 231. 6.2% swing.)
  3. Independent GAIN Gwersyllt (Wrexham) from Labour.
  4. Labour HOLD Shotton East (Flintshire).
  5. Conservative WIN Bedworth North (Warwickshire). (Notional gain from Labour due to boundary changes.)
  6. Liberal Democrat GAIN Caldicot Castle (Monmouthshire) from Labour.
  7. Conservative GAIN (Warwickshire), from Labour.
  8. Labour GAIN Green Lane (Monmouthshire) from Independent.
  9. Conservative HOLD Shefford (Central Bedfordshire).
  10. Conservative GAIN Larkfield (Monmouthshire) from Liberal Democrat.
  11. Independent GAIN Garden Village (Wrexham) from Labour.
  12. Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.
  13. Conservative WIN Waddington & Hykeham East (Lincolnshire). (Notional hold. Boundary changes.)
  14. Labour HOLD Camden (by-election).
  15. Plaid Cymru HOLD Gwersyllt West (Wrexham).
  16. Conservatives WIN Bedworth West and
  17. Bedworth East (Warwickshire), both notional gains from Labour.
  18. Lib Dem HOLD   (Gloucestershire.)
  19. Liberal Democrats HOLD Offa (Wrexham).

Overall results so far (some due to boundary changes)

C_BQ50bWsAUL3ZT105-7. Conservatives take all Harlow (Essex) divisions: three gains from Labour.

108. UKIP LOSS Basildon Westley Heights (Essex).

109. Plaid Cymru GAIN Grosvenor (Wrexham) from Labour.

110. Labour GAIN Smithfield (Wrexham) from Plaid Cymru.

111. Labour HOLD Ruabon (Wrexham).

112. Conservative HOLD Bronington (Wrexham).

113. Labour LOSS Nuneaton (Warwickshire).

So far reports of turnouts as low as 7% in some areas are bouncing around.

There are not enough results in to declare any Councils yet.

Results at 1 a.m.

C_BZuICXoAEzvyW

138- 141. Lib Dem LOSS Somerset (4 seats) to the Conservatives.

142-145. Lib Dems GAIN (Flintshire) from the Conservatives and HOLD three in Leamington.

146. UKIP LOSS Boston North to Conservatives.

SIX losses for UKIP so far.

147-148. Conservative GAIN both Grange & Kingsway/ Barton & Tredworth (Gloucestershire) from Labour.

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As the Councils declare, results are coming in too far to record individually.

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1:30 a.m. so far

Conservatives: +37 . Labour -25. Liberal Democrats -six. Greens even. UKIP -9.

Results for West Midlands mayor are due at 5pm on Friday. Apparently close between above-mentioned two front runners.

Results for West of England mayor due soon, possibly tomorrow (05/05/17) now though.

149. Conservatives GAIN Borras Park from Liberal Democrats (Wrexham).

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Results at 2 a.m.

250 seats declared- Conservatives +52, Labour -29 seats, Liberal Democrats -8, Greens +1. UKIP -18: they have yet to win a seat. The Conservatives are picking up most of the UKIP seats (now- 2:30 a.m.- lost 26, held 0) and Labour are on a net gain of 0 but have 46 so far.

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Results at 2:30 a.m.

400+ seats declared- Conservatives +76. Labour -36 seats overall, Liberal Democrats -6, the Greens +2, UKIP no wins or holds (unclear how many they’ve lost.)

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Results 3 a.m.

500+ seats declared- Conservatives +85, Labour -40, Liberal Democrats -9, the Greens +four. UKIP, no holds, -33.

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Results 3:30 a.m.

600+ seats declared- Conservatives +95, Liberal Democrats have won 94 (-10),  Labour have won 66 (-43) the Greens have won 9 (+4). UKIP still on no holds or gains, all losses.

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Results 4 a.m.

This will be the last entry tonight/this early morning, as all those that would be counted till later ‘today’ (05/05/17) seem to be in. The Scottish count starts, and the mayorals should be finalised then too.

Labour is likely to HOLD Neath Talbot, Cardiff and Swansea (especially the latter as Labour still haven’t lost a seat in Swansea. They’ve just held Penclawdd and Gorseinon) though results are not finalised. With 1/4 of the votes in, we can perhaps make predictions that the Lib Dems will make few gains and UKIP are dead in the water. The Conservatives, unsurprisingly have made gains in already strongly/nearly theirs, not least due to the UKIP wipeout, and the Labour losses so far are not the ‘disaster’ the BBC and other MSM outlets are saying/ predicting/ gloating over.

Another issue, as discussed in parts one and two of the election blog, is that assumptions are being made that I do not think will pan out. The EU referendum has both polarised and exhausted a good part of the electorate, old against young, leave against remain, north against south, and so on. Add to that a huge rise in the past two years of 18-25 year olds registering to vote, many of whom are very much politically active (galvanised to a great extent by B*exit) but often ‘save it’ for the ‘big ones’, and I think we are going to have to throw the assumptions out of the window. None of the MSM thus far are brave enough to consider that the political landscape has and will change. None of the MSM are making possibly the most obvious historic analogic correlation between local and General election- that the last time the Conservatives gained a large amount of local election seats, Labour won the General Election by a landslide (1997). Yes the elections were on the same day (see graphic later in the blog) but they (as you will see) are making Thatcher analogies on the very same grounds.

But so far, the biggest ‘winner’ is apathy, even in these Conservative heartlands- 34% turnout in the council elections cited thus far, though a little higher than ‘usual’, is pitiful, though perhaps understandable: many internet commentators apart from thinking it’s apathy, are using terms like ‘voter fatigue’ and for those that did vote, it was to remove a councillor who had in their eyes not done a good job (which is cross party) and on local issues, rather than any governmental protest vote, which makes sense as so many of these Councils were nearly and/or strongly Conservative already.

And those commenters who are gleefully ‘spinning’ Labour losses are also trying to ‘explain’ the actual LACK of a Labour collapse.

You can’t have it both ways!

The BBC put to Diane Abbott that these elections might overstate Labour’s support (and how would that be possible if Labour have ‘collapsed’?!) because there may be people who were willing to vote for a Labour council but who won’t vote for Corbyn to become prime minister next month. She rightly pointed out the low turnouts and the fact these were the Conservatives to lose in England. She added “Labour voters will be repelled by Tory triumphalism and the notion of giving Theresa May some kind of blank cheque.”

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Now 11 a.m. is here and so am I (just!) to catch up on the few results that weren’t quite in when I staggered off to bed last night. They will be added below. Results below are being added in order of announcement. 1240+ seats have been announced, and most of the new results are in Wales. Labour held most of those Councils, unlike the England elections where they were mostly Conservative/ Conservative minority/ NOC.

results 5 May 11am copy

So it would seem that even in Conservative heartlands, they have not regained the 335 they lost in 2013 yet, even with their 33% gain from UKIP- but we are only just over 1/4 of the way through, thus it is still possible. Many commenters are ignoring context when they say this is the biggest Conservative gain since Thatcher, most likely on purpose. The Lib Dems have equalised overnight but one would have expected more gains, considering it was their vote that collapsed in 2013.

First UKIP positive at all, a GAIN of ONE seat in Padiham and Burnley West (Lancashire) from Labour.

1:30pm

Results so far

(England- figures in brackets are the 2013 numbers) Conservatives: +189 ( -335), Labour: -82 (+291), UKIP: -76 (+139), Lib Dems: -25 (-124), Greens +3 (+3).

(Wales- figures in brackets are the 2012 numbers)  Labour: -97 (+232), Independents: +14 (-64), Conservatives: +72 (-61), Plaid Cymru: +29 (-41), Lib Dems: -10 (-66)

2:30 p.m. (time for some analysis! 😉 )

We are 3/4 of the way through the declarations if we include Scotland, but almost all the English and Welsh ones are in.

Conservatives have gained nine councils in England (all but one from NOC), one in Wales. (+350 seats). So in their ‘strong area councils’ they have only just reversed the 2013 collapse.

Labour has lost one council in England, three in Wales, one in Scotland (Glasgow) (-250 seats). Still 41 to go before they are back to 2012-2013 levels.

Lib Dems (-39); the Greens (+2) and UKIP has been wiped out.

Statistician John Curtice has made a projection national vote share (compared to the 2015 GE), which relies on a lot of assumption, but still not the Labour wipeout the ‘polls’ were and are direly pronouncing:

Conservative: 38% (+3)
Labour: 27% (-2)
Lib Dem: 18% (+7)
UKIP: 5% (-8)

It is easy to opine at this stage of the ‘game’ that this should be the actual average polls  (with my usual caveat about polls) results by week 3 of the general election, which are at (post-local elections polls not yet done, when they will add them here). They are in fact far more in line with the bookies’ shortening of odds for Labour and lengthening for the Conservatives- with the other parties pretty much nowhere. If people in England especially realise these were the Conservatives to LOSE, not Labour‘s to win, then the polls should close up, with the Conservatives losing more points to Labour. Here are some examples of short, medium and long-range polling, in which the pro Conservative slant due to small/selective polling numbers has never been more apparent: 

Of course there is some frantic backpedalling on this narrowing of the ‘odds’ by some statisticians, saying (again using flawed data) that May is going into the GE with ‘bigger leads’ since Thatcher (which of course the MSM is trumpeting to the skies) In the interests of fairness, the data is below with the flaw highlighted.

None of this takes into account 

  1. ‘voter fatigue’ and ‘voter galvanisation’ that has taken place since the EU referendum
  2. OR the flaw in their data, which is the proximity of the local elections to the GEs- some were on the same day, some afterwards but NONE a month before. This timing has been described as ‘unprecedented’ by long standing MPs across all parties. Yet the statisticians are ignoring it.
  3. OR factored in that the seats up for reelection were (England) mostly Conservative areas or those with NOC but a Conservative minority hold, (Scotland) the Conservatives were coming from a historic low so it would have been impossible for SNP to make many gains, or (Wales), where Labour held, much of the time the majority was increased despite the overall seats losses. In other words, they’re not actually looking at it in the context of First Past The Post, the very system we USE to elect MPs!
  4. OR the collapse of UKIP, giving the Conservatives a false positive in their own areas.
  5. OR voter turnout
  6. OR the ‘voter’s regret’ that always follows election results. This could swing GE figures and attendance either way to be fair, depending on whether people who did not vote are ‘fatigued’ or ‘galvanised’ and why.
  7. OR the fact that this was not a complete local election- only 4851 of the possible 20758 Council seats in the UK were being contested: this is just 23% of the total.

May GE copy

They may as well have published this, as there are just far too many variables.

tumblr_inline_n7fr8gVjwC1r5l1wo

Or, as Sky News have ‘predicted’ not much change at all. And no doubt using the ‘super marginals’ too. (see the general election blogs part 1 and 2, and the voting blog on this.) So not even Murdoch can fudge a landslide.

sky ge pred from locals copy

This is what you get when an independent (with a small ‘I’) historian- who is well aware of both the ‘bandwagon’ and ‘backfire’ effects looks at the numbers as opposed to those who have an obligation to establishments or work for somewhere who is trying to appeal to ‘right-slanted’ readers 😉 

Even yougov admit that to correlate locals and generals is a false idea.

And Theresa May is still in full robotic potato mode. When asked about the local elections, according to the Guardian, she replied that she needs a majority to enable her to carry on fighting ‘bureaucrats’ in Brussels.

4:30 pm

The last few results are coming in now. This is the current state of play across England, Wales and Scotland.

local elec mirror 430pm copy

So while the Scottish vote dip was expected for Labour, the Welsh landslide never was a ‘thing’. The PA have included in the Conservative wins the NOC ones and not put them in the NOC line as well, and not included SNP, which is a bit naughty (as can be seen below, NOC lost FAR more than just one.) This from the Guardian from the 3:30pm update is a little more comprehensive as to the number of losses and gains, with only 6 councils left to declare (if yours is not on here, sorry, I will try and add them all!). Independents are ‘Other’ on here.

elec graun 330pm copy

In England, in the Conservative heartlands, the results (pretty much 100% in now) are: Conservative – 884 seats (+204)
Labour – 234 seats (-96)
Liberal Democrat – 204 seats (-17)
Ukip – 1 seat (-86)
Others – 90 seats (-5).

As we can see in the Guardian graphic, Scotland and Wales’ results add the interesting data GE wise. Labour have been dead in Scotland for two years (the 2015 GE), before Corbyn became leader and the Conservatives are picking up ‘NO’ (to Scottish referendum) voters even at local level. In Wales the picture is quite decent though Labour cannot afford to breathe a sigh of relief for too long.

5:30pm

With the counting halls emptying and people™ still wondering why 70% of other people™ didn’t vote (and this could be why, here’s a graphic taken from 2008)

Screen-shot-2012-11-05-at-8.43.01-AM85 out of 88 councils have declared and all but one mayoral vote is in. It is clear that the pre 2013 status quo in these areas has been restored, almost 100% due to the demolition job of UKIP. Labour started 291 up, Conservatives 335 down. We need to note that the UKIP voters at this level that used to vote Labour do not seem to have returned- this is likely because the Conservatives have pretty much become UKIP. The full results, as soon as the last three are in, will be added below to each country’s results.

*************and that’s all, folks! (For now)************

COUNCILS DECLARED (over 51% of the total needed to gain control or hold).

ENGLAND.

Warwickshire (no overall control) now Conservative.

Conservatives hold Essex.

Conservatives GAIN Lincolnshire. (Boundary changes, UKIP lost all 16 seats.)

 

Conservatives HOLD Dorset and Hampshire councils (not surprised, both Conservative strongholds)

Conservatives HOLD Somerset
Cumbria stays NOC.
Conservatives gain Gloucestershire from close NOC.

Conservatives HOLD Dorset and Hampshire.

Conservatives HOLD Hertfordshire.

 

Conservatives GAIN Isle of Wight from NOC.

That was all we knew by 4 a.m. By 11 a.m. a lot more results were known.

UKIP WIPEOUT Hampshire.

Conservatives GAIN Lancashire county council from NOC (Labour minority).

 

Northumberland are now NOC from a Labour minority (but still were NOC)- the balance has shifted to the Conservatives and Lib Dems. (CON: 33 (+12), LAB: 24 (-8), IND: 7 (+4), LIB DEM: 3 (-8)).

Labour LOSE Derbyshire, set for a Conservative victory .

All the results are in- and like Scotland (see below) they scream ‘undecided’, at least out of the 30-odd % that turned up. The large graphic is for the non-metropolitans, and the smaller graphics are for the Unitary authorities and the single Metropolitan borough.non met eng loc elec 2017 copy

WALES:

Wrexham stays NOC (No Overall Control). (Labour 11 (-12), Conservative 9 (+4), Lib Dem 2 (-2) Plaid Cymru 3 (+2), Independent 27 (+8))

Flintshire stay NOC (Labour 34 seats, +3, Independent 25, +2, Conservative 6, -2, Lib Dems 5, -2, Plaid Cymru 0, -1)

Labour LOSE Bridgend.

Labour HOLD Swansea with increased majority.

Labour HOLD Torfaen.

Labour HOLD Cardiff Central.

Labour HOLDS Neath Port Talbot.

Labour HOLD Newport.

Conservatives GAIN Monmouthshire (from NOC).

Independents GAIN Blaenau Gwent from Labour.

Independents (mostly ex-Labour candidates) GAIN Merthyr Tydfil from Labour.

With all the Welsh results in, this is how it stands:

welsh loc elec 2017 copy

The Conservative seat gains have not translated into any major overall wins. In fact they’re still in third place on Council seats. Even with a ‘win’ being the party that holds more seats than a combined opposition meaning that seats, despite about 12 hours of MSM screaming, mean little), this is a huge fail.

SCOTLAND:

Here are the results by 12:30 a.m. The Conservatives are rising from a historic low that even Ruth Davidson admits. Sally Cogley of the ‘Rubbish Party’ took a seat in East Ayrshire’s Irvine Valley ward; a single-issue party committed to improving rubbish collection in the Irvine Valley.

This means the ‘Rubbish Party’ has beaten UKIP so far in the local elections.

scot votes so far copy

Council declarations.

West Fife & Village (Fife) still NOC (1 CON (gain from Labour); 1 SNP (hold); 1 LAB (hold)).

Girvan and South Carrick (South Ayrshire) still NOC (1 SNP (hold), 1 IND (hold), 1 CON (gain from Labour)). Overall South Ayrshire results: CON: 12 (+2), LAB: 5 (-4), SNP: 9 (-) Note there are boundary changes here too.

Glasgow moves from narrow Labour HOLD to NOC. (SNP 5, Labour 3, Conservative 2, Green 2 so far. A big issue seems to be the number of spoilt/wrong papers.)

SNP HOLD Clackmannanshire (no gains.)

Orkney Islands HOLD for Independents. (IND: 17 (-1); Green: 1 (+1)).

Inverclyde still NOC (LAB: 8 (-3), SNP: 7 (-), IND: 4 (+3), CON: 2 (+1), Lib Dem: 1 (-1)).

Perth & Kinross NOC: CON: 17 (+7), SNP: 15 (-3), Lib Dem: 4 (-1), IND: 3 (-1), LAB: 1 (-3). Again, boundary changes are an issue here.

West Lothian stays NOC, no SNP gains.

Dumfries & Galloway NOC (CON: 16 (+2), LAB: 11 (-4), SNP: 11: (+1), Lib Dem: 1 (-), OTH: 4 (-3)).

SNP LOSE Dundee Council to NOC.

SNP GAIN Renfrewshire. (Boundary changes).

Edinburgh stays NOC (SNP 19 (-2), CON 18 (+7), LAB 12 (-9), GRN 8 (+1), Lib Dem 6 (+3)).

Falkirk SNP HOLD (SNP 12 (-1), LAB 9 (-4), CON 7 (+6), IND 2 (-1)).

And the final results are now in. Despite some Conservative seat gains, the overall results run as follows:

scot loc elec 2017 copy

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Let’s not forget what happened in 2016, when Labour did make inroads in Conservative areas (none of these were up for re-election today.) Did that make big news? No. I wonder why.

So what does this mean? (Prepare for a flood of tables).

Compared to the 2012 or 2013 results thanks to the Telegraph:

eng elec 2017 comparisons copyscot elec 2017 comparison copywelsh elec 2017 comparison copy

Wales is actually looking better than it did before on the whole it terms of majorities and control for Labour. For England and Scotland, a slow bleed of seats for sure, but in mostly ‘hostile’ areas-69% of Councils in fact, ‘hostile’ or ‘hostile/neutral‘. The lack of a whitewash in plain to see despite those odds. And why don’t seat losses and gains equate to Council controls? Our political system is simply not built to have that kind of correlation. (And there’s another reason why many don’t vote- ‘It doesn’t make any difference’…)

And thanks to the Guardian for this seat losses and gains. Also on this page are more detailed analyses of all the seats in terms of their swing.

graun final seats loss gain loc elec 2017 copy

Last time in these areas, the Conservatives lost 335. They’ve gained almost all of the 115 UKIP seats (all but 5 I believe, where 3 went to the Lib Dems and 2 to Labour). They weren’t, despite their posturing, going to make so much headway in Wales, but the Scotland gains are from a previous/recent all time low. So in real terms they are 113 above their 2013 result.

Labour were patchy. I have already looked at why Labour turnout was lower below, and as has been said, expectations in Scotland were low. But they held 1137 seats (few are talking about that) to the Conservatives 1339) and if you look at how the Labour seats were before this election (as talked about in part 1 of the local/mayoral blog)

councillors copy

that’s only a 5% drop UK wide, and a 6% rise for the Conservatives UK wide.

For UKIP, well…moving on… The Lib Dems had a 2% drop if we look UK wide, SNP had a 7% rise, the Greens gained 5%, and PC had a 14% rise.

So overall, the verdict appears to be ‘meh’, which is backed up by 2/3 of the low turnout. In this election, I think we are looking at 2/3 ‘voter fatigue’.

MAYORALS DECLARED (turnout has been scrappy but equivalent to previous equivalent elections: 29% in both Greater Manchester and West of England; 26% in the Liverpool City Region turnout was 26%, 33% in Peterborough and Cambs; and In Tees Valley, only 21.3%.)

The results for most of these should be finalised between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m.

And here are the final turnout figures:

final turnout mayoral copy

Commenters are noting turnout was higher in more affluent, Conservative areas than Labour areas, and I’ve seen many posts today saying they could not get to vote because they had to work, or that they were too ill and had no support to get there. And that distrust of the postal system led to them not choosing that option. It is tempting to suggest that even among people that are not apathetic, that having the TIME or the ENERGY left to vote after a long work shift (as shown on the voting blog) can account for over 1/3 or more of non-voters these days, which of course benefits the vote proportionally of the better-off, disenfranchising the poorer voters.

Few commenters (as most are on the ‘right’) are noting this possibility but rather, gloating about Conservative gains. If the Conservatives had not made gains in their heartland councils and areas, THAT would have been the disaster that would have been impossible to ‘spin’.

Labour HOLD Doncaster. Ros Jones won 32,631 votes. Her closest contender, Conservative George Jabbour, gained 13,575.

Labour HOLD North Tyneside. Norma Redfearn was the candidate.

West of England. Now a Labour vs Conservative run-off in the second round, which the Conservatives have narrowly won, over Labour.

Greater Manchester. Andy Burnham (Labour) has clinched it. Most likely he has won on 1st preferences (they have to get past 50% on that for it not to go to the second round). Confirmation will be at about 4pm and he obtained 63% of the vote which is impressive even with the low turnout. (LAB: 63.4%, CON: 22.7%, LDEM: 6.1%, GRN: 1.9%, EDEM: 2.0%, UKIP: 1.9%). Now bear in mind that many in the area voted against having a mayor in the first place and we see another reason why turnout was low!

West Midlands. Now down to 2, with Labour‘s Sîon Simon taking 24,331 (44.4%) votes, and the Conservatives’ Andy Street receiving 20,345 (37%.) But in the second round Street won out. But it was incredibly close: 50.4% to 49.6%.

Tees Valley.  First preference votes were Foote-Wood (Lib Dem)- 12,550; Houchen (Con)- 40,278; Jeffrey (Lab)- 39,797 and Tennant (UKIP)- 9,475. So again it was a Labour/ Conservative fight in round two, which the Conservatives narrowly won. The turnout here was the lowest out of all the mayorals. Houchen less than a DAY later has been caught out in a massive lie that was part of his MANIFESTO!

18221653_785210371643607_5258907800579412430_n

Liverpool City Region. The result was expected around 3pm, but came in early. Steve Rotheram (Labour) won on the first count, with 59% of the vote. Here are the figures.

Steve Rotheram (Lab) 171,167 (59.30%)
Tony Caldeira (Conservative) 58,805 (20.37%)
Carl Cashman (Lib Dem) 19,751 (6.84%)
Tom Crone (Green) 14,094 (4.88%)
Paula Walters (UKIP) 11,946 (4.14%)
Roger Bannister (TUSC) 7,881 (2.73%)
Tabitha Morton (Women) 4,287 (1.49%)
Paul Breen (Jury) 729 (0.25%)

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough. Result expected around 5pm, Conservative James Palmer likely to win, probably in the first round. The results were a little late and ran as follows- James Palmer (Con) – 88,826 (56.9%), Rod Cantrill (LD) – 67,205 (43.1%).

This is lower than I thought it would be for Labour, though the contests were incredibly close for all but one of the Conservative wins.

West Midlands: Andy Street (Con): 50.4%; Sîon Simon (Lab): 49.6%
Tees Valley: Ben Houchen (Con): 51.2%; Sue Jeffrey (Lab): 48.9%
West of England: Tim Bowles (Con): 51.6%; Lesley Mansell (Lab): 48.4%

met mayor 2017 copy

All could have gone either way in those posts till the last. Just shows you though that you cannot, any more, base past voting performances on results to come. But we do have to look at what the mayoral elections were FOR- for the most part, being in charge of large stacks of ready cash to revitalise the regions. If Labour had won most of the new mayoralties, the MSM and the Conservative would be bleating about low turnout and thus weak mandates. May (Viva El Generalissimo!!) brooks no opposition- so Labour controlled regions would get

  • no support (and we’ve seen how they’ve nicked money from Labour controlled authorities to give to Conservatives ones, cosily called ‘sweetheart deals’: an uneven ‘easing’ that will help Conservative areas more, which could also have effected the locals results);
  • they’d certainly get no extra powers;
  • and in two or three years time, should the Conservatives win the GE, they could even plausibly face talk of abolition. With turnout so low, the people that did vote would tend to be the ones that knew what was at stake.

This makes me feel quite sorry for all Labour controlled mayoralties, especially the currently Labour-held Bristol mayoralty which were not up for re-election this year (“Does this region really need two mayors…?”)

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TOTALS:

(Councils):

ENGLAND:

Labour 2 (-2)

Conservative 27 (+9)

Independents 1 (-)

No overall control 7 (-7)

 

WALES

Labour 7 (-3) 

Conservative 1 (+1)

Independents 3 (+1)

Plaid Cymru 1 (-)

No overall control 9 (+1)

SCOTLAND

Labour 0 (-4)

Conservative 0 (-)

Independents 3 (-)

SNP 0 (-2)

NOC 29 (+6)

(Mayorals):

Labour 4 (+2)

Conservative 4 (+4)

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What happened to the Manchester by-election?

The by-election was planned by-election to be held yesterday (04/05/17) to elect a new Member of Parliament (MP) for the House of Commons, but it was cancelled on 20th April following the announcement of a snap general election. Parliament was thus dissolved before the by-election so it was not held.The seat will be part of the general election results next month.

This is the first time a by-election has been cancelled in this manner since 1924.

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Now that’s me done, I’m off for a long-overdue cuppa and a packet of custard creams 😉

SOURCES:

  1. This,
  2. a dab of this;
  3. regular checks on this;
  4. this on constant refresh;
  5. yelling ‘hurry up damn you’ at this;
  6. while wondering how these people got the results so fast until the 2:30 a.m. deluge;
  7. this for their pretty and useful maps (but iffy commentary) that I decided not to include as I had too many graphics already;
  8. this for their overall results tables (thank you- yoink! Once verified anyway.)
  9. this for their excellent comparison tables, while having a snigger about their commentary being almost identical to every other ‘right’ MSM outlet.
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