General Election 2017: The Results!

**********LIVE RESULTS ROLLING BLOG!**********

Already we are seeing unheard-of levels of attendance at the polling booths, sometimes the queues are going round the block, so it is ON! ‘Polling’ before the day suggests a minimum 70% turnout, which is at least 3.9% more than in 2015. This does not sound much but that would be at least 1.1 million votes.

Some who had postal votes haven’t been so lucky- their forms didn’t even arrive so there have been panic stations arranging emergency proxy votes and an investigation is underway by the Electoral Commission and the Post Office as to why this has happened. Not wearing a tin foil hat here, but it does seem odd that this has happened mostly in marginal seats. Runcorn voters too have reported issues.

 

POSTAL VOTES- what to do if yours went missing.
Helpful advice for those stuck without a postal ballot.

If your card didn’t come and you were voting in person, use this website to find out where to go. You do not need your card or any ID. Some, like last time, are saying they’re not the lists when they get there, especially students, and I will be keeping an eye on that. But if you registered you will have had a confirmation by email at least, so take that with you to try an avoid cases like this.

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For anyone new to all this, the magic number is 326. That’s the ‘post’ they need to get past to win outright. If that doesn’t happen, the party with the most votes will likely look to smaller parties with similar aims and policies to make up the numbers (a coalition.) Here are some handy graphics (some more tongue in cheek than others) to show where the parties sit (and thanks to tompride blog for some of these):

imagepc20151Political spectrumsnp-labour1snp-voters-left-right-scale1walespolicompactual party leanings

Now we all know where we sit, are we sitting comfortably? (Throw out a comment below if you’re still confused!) Then we’ll begin¬†ūüėČ

How long will the counting take?

Bloody hours!¬†ūüėϬ†The voting closes at 10pm so if you haven’t done it by then, you’re out of luck. An ‘exit poll’ is usually released soon afterwards (taken from people leaving the booths during the day) and while sometimes accurate, they are not always. So don’t cry into your beer just yet!

  • Houghton and Sunderland South in the north east of England tend to make it a point of pride to declare first and they are both safe Labour seats so don’t get your hopes up- they often take less than two hours and sometimes only an hour to be ready to tell us their result.
  • A couple of hours later key seats like Putney (which may show if the EU remain voters are sticking it to the man this election) and Nuneaton should declare. This seat is one of the ‘key seats’ in that it is a good barometer (often called a bellwether) for the rest of the country. Apparently.

But since the referendum voting has been all over the place so this year, traditional key seats may no longer play a such a large part of voting trends.

  • Then by 2 a.m. would come in a flurry of votes in more usually safe Labour seats like¬†Tooting, Wrexham, and Darlington, followed by marginals like¬†Thurrock ‚Äď a three-way marginal ‚Äď and Peterborough; which is usually a ‘key seat’ for the Conservatives.
  • By now we should see the non English seats start to declare and a clearer picture will be seen.
  • Most of the marginals (close competition seats) will be known by 3:30a.m. ish and (taking their sweet time) by 4 a.m. we should know if May keeps her seat in Maidenhead. Corbyn’s seat in Islington North is ultra-safe and we will likely know that by 2:30 a.m. This will followed by Lucas and Farron’s seat (Plaid leader Leanne Wood is not standing) and I am sure we will be on tenterhooks waiting to see if Nuttall of UKIP won Boston and Skegness. ūüėČ

By this time I may well be typing in some kind of sleep deprived code as it’ll be 5 a.m. with a handful or two of seats to go. But we will likely know by then who won. 7 a.m.; and it’s usually all over apart from a slacking half a dozen or so. ūüėČ That’s the short version. Below is the long version ūüėČ which will start any time after 11pm so ‘stay tuned’!

Exit Polls (Sky/ITV/BBC combined):

Conservative 314 (-17)

Labour 266 (+37)

SNP 34 (-22)

Liberal Democrats 14 (+6)

Plaid Cymru 3 (0)

Green 1

(0) UKIP 0

Others 18 This is the Northern Irish vote- and I am sure they are sick of being called ‘Other’. In 2015 the¬†Democratic Unionists¬†had 8 seats, Independents 4, Sinn F√©in 4, the¬†Social Democratic & Labour Party 3 and the¬†Ulster Unionist Party 2.)

This would mean the Conservatives could not hold a majority government. But it also would mean the ‘progressive alliance’ would have the same number of seats. Very much a ‘hung’ (not conclusive) result. This would result in May staying at number 10 until all the parties agree on alliances to form a majority (326 seats and over.)

How did they work this out? They took polls from 144 polling stations and extrapolated the result from that.

SEATS.

I will include swings (where the MP holding lost or gained votes compared to the party in second, if there’s a ‘-‘ it’s swing away from the MP holding the seat) and turnout as often as I can but when the numbers start coming in thick and fast I will have to just put numbers of seats, like on the local/mayoral blog. Bit worrying to see armed police at Sunderland, where at 11pm, the count is almost due. It’s running late everywhere because turnout is much higher this time. And remain versus leave may be not such an issue in England, as I have been saying all along- it will be more where previous UKIP voters go.¬†

Apologies if your seat is not on here. You can use this site to check how your constituency did if not on this list.

Labour HOLD

Newcastle Central (UKIP not even on stage): Turnout 67% Majority 65% (+2% swing)

Houghton/Sunderland South: Turnout 61% Majority 37% (-3.5% swing)

Sunderland Central: Turnout 62% Majority 56% (-2.3%)

Newcastle East: Turnout: 67% Majority (68%)

Washington and Sunderland West: Majority 61% (-2.1%)

Newcastle North: Turnout 73% Majority 56% (-0.6%)

Workington:¬†Turnout –% Majority 51% (-1.4%)

Middlesbrough: ¬†Turnout –% Majority 68% (-1.3%)

Darlington: Turnout 68% Majority 51% (-0.2%) key seat

South Shields:Turnout –% Majority 62% (0.6%)

Jarrow:¬†Turnout –% Majority 65% (—%)

Wrexham:¬†Turnout 70% Majority 49% (—%) very close this one, only 1832 in it

Llanelli: Turnout 68% Majority 53% (1.4%) (Shadow Defence Minister)

Halton: Turnout –% Majority¬†73%¬†(+3.4%)

Leigh: Turnout –% Majority 56.2% (-2?%)

Birkenhead: Turnout –% Majority 77%

Wigan: Majority 62%

Tooting:¬†Turnout 75% Majority (huge increase)(—%)

Makerfield: Majority 60%

West Bromwich East: (Tom Watson) Majority 58% (-2.2%)

RESULTS ARE COMING IN VERY FAST NOW SO WILL ADD AS MANY AS I CAN BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE SUBTOTALS.

Burnley

Clwyd South:¬†Turnout 69% Majority — (+2.4%)

Torfaen

Newport East: Majority 57% (4.1%)

Hartlepool: Turnout 59%  Majority c. 2000 votes (1.8%)

Ealing super marginal: Turnout 75% Majority 60% (12%)

Wirral West ¬†super marginal: Turnout 79% Majority 54% (–%)

Rhondda

Bootle

Grimsby: Turnout 58% Majority 49% (-3%)

Wirral South

Wallasey: Turnout 71% Majority 71%

Walthamstow: Majority 80.5% (10%)

Islington South (Emily Thornberry)

Islington North (Jeremy Corbyn): Turnout 73% Majority 76% (12%)

Manchester Gorton, new candidate Azfal Khan

Brent North (Barry Gardiner): Majority 63%

Labour GAIN (tbc*)

Rutherglen and Hamilton West (from SNP) Turnout 64% Majority 265 votes (8.9%)

Vale of Clywd (from Con): Turnout 68% Majority 50% (3.5%)

Shipley (from Con):¬†¬†Turnout 73% Majority 51% (—%)

Battersea (from Con): Turnout 71% Majority 46% (10%)

Leeds North West (from Lib Dems): Turnout 68% Majority 44% (8%)

South Stockton (from Con): Turnout 71% Majority 48% (5.7%)

Bury North super marginal (from Con): Turnout –% Majority 54% (6?%)

Midlothian (from SNP): Turnout 66% Majority 36% (11%)

East Lothian (from SNP): Turnout –% Majority –% (–%)

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (from SNP) (9.7% swing) (Gordon Brown’s old seat)

Sheffield Hallam (from Lib Dem one time leader Nick Clegg): Turnout 78% Majority 38% (4%)

Gower: Turnout –% Majority 50% (3.5%)

Glasgow North East (from SNP):¬†Turnout 53% Majority 43% (—%)

Peterborough (from Con) (2.7% swing)

Derby North (from Con): Majority 48.5%

Ipswich (from Con): Turnout 68% Majority 47% (—%)

High Peak (from Con): Turnout 74% Majority 50%

Canterbury (Con since 1918): Turnout 73% Majority 49% (9.3%)

Warwick and Leamington (from Con):  Turnout 73% (7.6%)

Weaver Vale (from Con): Majority 52% (5%)

Lincoln (from Con): Turnout 67% Majority 48% (3.1%)

Reading East (from Con): Turnout 73% Majority 49%
Croydon Central (from Con): Turnout 71% Majority 52%
Warrington South (from Con) Majority 48%

Plymouth Sutton (from Con): Turnout 58% Majority 53%

Cardiff North (from Con):¬†Turnout 77% Majority 50% (—%)

Colne Valley (from Con): Turnout 72% Majority 48% (5.5%)

Brighton Kemptown (from Con): Turnout 72%

Bedford (from Con):

Enfield Southgate (from Con):

Keighley (from Con): Turnout 72% Majority 47% (3.3%)

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (from SNP): Majority 42.6% (13.1%)

Crewe & Nantwich (from Con): Majority 47% (3%)

LATE RESULT: Kensington and Chelsea (from Con): Turnout 64% Majority- won by two votes! 42.2% (11.6%)

Subtotal: 30

Total: 262 (229 in 2015- and by 4 a.m. Labour matched this.) GAIN OF THIRTY THREE

Conservative HOLD

Swindon North: Turnout 68% Majority 54% (-3.7%)

Swindon South:¬†Turnout –% Majority –% (—%) very close, under 200o votes in it

Kettering: Turnout 69% Majority 58% (-2.6%)

Nuneaton: Turnout 69% Majority 52% (-0.2%)

Broxbourne: Turnout 65% Majority 62% (-2.2%)

Basildon & Billericay:¬†Turnout –% Majority 61% (-1.6%)

South Basildon & East Thurrock:¬†Turnout –% Majority 57% (2.8%)

Harrogate & Knaresborough: Turnout –% Majority¬†55.5% (+0.4%)

RESULTS ARE COMING IN VERY FAST NOW SO WILL ADD AS MANY AS I CAN BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE SUBTOTALS.

Carlisle: 50%

Harlow: 54% (-1.6%)

Putney: Turnout 72% Majority 44% (-10%) this was a safe seat!

Maidenhead (Theresa May’s seat): Majority 65% (-4%)

Conservative GAIN

Angus (from SNP) Turnout 63% (-4%) Majority 45% (16%)

Moray (from SNP). Angus Robertson OUT (shame, he was a good bloke- he is the SNP’s leader in Westminster) (-13% swing)

Ochil & South Perthshire (from SNP) 71% Majority (16%)

Southport (from Lib Dem): Turnout 69% Majority 38.7% (7.6%) Labour second, LD third.

East Renfrewshire (from SNP): Turnout –% Majority –%

Clacton (from UKIP)

Richmond Park (from Lib Dem): Turnout 79% Majority of only 45 votes, the Lib Dems had a 18% swing but it was still not enough to hold this marginal seat.

Aberdeen South (from SNP)

Ayr Carrick and Cumnock (from SNP)

Middlesborough South (from Lab): Turnout 66% Majority 50% (-3.6%)

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (from SNP): Majority 48%

Stirling (from SNP)

Banff and Buchan (from SNP)

Berwickshire (from SNP)

Mansfield (from Lab): Majority 47%

Gordon (from SNP– Alex Salmond)

Derbyshire North East (from Lab)

Stoke-on-Trent South (from Lab): Turnout 63% Majority 49.1% (4%)

Subtotal: 15

Total: 318 (330 in 2015, +1 vacant, and the Speaker) LOSS OF SEVENTEEN

SNP HOLD

Paisley and Renfrewshire South: (Mhairi Black)¬†Turnout –% Majority –% (–%)

RESULTS ARE COMING IN VERY FAST NOW SO WILL ADD AS MANY AS I CAN BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE SUBTOTALS.

Kilmarnock & Loudoun: 42%

SNP GAIN

Subtotal: 0

Total: 35 (54 in 2015) LOSS OF NINETEEN

Liberal Democrat HOLD

RESULTS ARE COMING IN VERY FAST NOW SO WILL ADD AS MANY AS I CAN BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE SUBTOTALS.

Subtotal: 4

Liberal Democrat GAIN

East Dunbartonshire (from SNP) Turnout 79%

Twickenham (Vince Cable) (from Con)

Bath (from Con)

Eastbourne (from Con)

Kingston and Surbiton (from Con): Turnout 76%

Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross (from SNP)

Edinburgh West (from SNP): Majority 34.3%

Oxford West and Abingdon (from (Con)

Subtotal: 8

Total: 12 (9 in 2015) GAIN OF THREE

Green HOLD

Brighton Pavilion: Turnout 77% Majority 52% (5%)

Total: 1

Green GAIN

Subtotal: 0

Total: 1 (1 in 2015) NO CHANGE

Plaid HOLD

Arfon

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Subtotal: 3

Plaid GAIN

Subtotal: 1

Total: 4 (3 in 2015) GAIN OF ONE

DUP HOLD

Strangford

North Antrim (Ian Paisley)

Subtotal: 8

DUP GAIN

Subtotal: 2

Total: 10 (8 in 2015) GAIN OF TWO

SDLP HOLD

Subtotal: 0

SDLP GAIN

Subtotal: 0

Total: (3 in 2015) LOSS OF THREE

UUP HOLD

Subtotal: 0

UUP GAIN

Subtotal: 0

Total: 0 (2 in 2015) LOSS OF TWO

Sinn Féin HOLD

West Tyrone

Subtotal: 5

Sinn Féin GAIN

Foyle

Subtotal: 2

Total: 7 (4 in 2015) GAIN OF THREE

Independent HOLD

Subtotal: 1

Independent GAIN

Subtotal:

Total: (4 in 2015)

Final results:

result election 2017 copy

  • Total turnout:¬†68.7% (It was 66.1% in 2015; the highest number in 18 years. Just 65% voted in 2010, 61% in 2005 and only 59% in 2001)
  • Corbyn gained 40% of the vote, Miliband in 2015 obtained 30%, Brown in 2010 managed 29% and Blair in 2005 dropped to 35%. Not bad for someone ‘they’ said was ‘unelectable’¬†ūü§Ē

The tellers for Kensington and Chelsea have been sent home- the vote is super close; and that result could be out this afternoon, perhaps even tomorrow (10/06/17). I don’t ever remember this happening before! With that result now in, here are the voting numbers for the main parties (for the rest go here):

Conservative: 13,667,213

Labour: 12,874,985

Lib Dem: 2,371,772

SNP: 977,569

UKIP: 593,852

Green: 525,371

Plaid Cymru: 164,466

DUP: 292,316

Sinn Féin: 238,915

SDLP: 95,419

UUP: 83,280

Conclusions:

The EU.

First and foremost, this. May threw away enough of a majority to block most progressive and socialist EDMs and Bills, and look what she has now. And pretence of power hangs by a thread.

Donald-Trump-Theresa-May-UK-Prime-Minister-President-560877

  • Voters were ‘B*exited out’, as I said right back in week one (or hoped!) but ironically, with the result this close, it feels like the referendum all over again. The EU Council are going to find it hard to start negotiations in under a fortnight’s time with such a shaky Government, and will likely use this to either¬†delay the process, as right now they simply do not know with whom they are dealing, or push ahead while the UK is weak. Juncker’s statement last month

“Now growth in the EU is twice that in the US and I feel we can be reassured as far as the immediate future is concerned.

“And at that point – despite the success, despite the growth – our British friends decided to leave the EU, which is a tragedy.

“We shouldn’t underestimate the importance of the decision made by the British people. It is no small event.

“Of course we will negotiate with our British friends in full transparency, but there should be no doubt whatsoever that it is not the EU which is abandoning the UK, it is the opposite – they are abandoning the EU.

“And this is a difference which will be felt over the next few years.”

Mr ¬†Juncker¬†delivered his address in French, joking: “I will express myself in French because, slowly but surely, English is losing importance in Europe.”

and today (09/06/17)

‚ÄúBefore asking the question of prolonging the negotiation with our British friends, the negotiations should start. I‚Äôd like them to start,‚ÄĚ Mr Juncker said.

Mr Juncker said Brussels could open the Brexit talks at 9.30am tomorrow. ‚ÄúSo we are waiting for visitors coming from London. I hope we will not experience any further delay in the conclusion of these negotiations,‚ÄĚ he said.

‚ÄúFirst we have to agree on divorce and exit modalities and then we have to envisage the architecture of our future relations. I do hope the result of the elections will have no major impact on the negotiations we are desperately waiting for.‚ÄĚ

confirms this. Now ‘we’ whether we voted leave or remain should not be angry at Juncker for this. Lay that emotion where it belongs- on the shoulders of May for her lamentable approach to B*exit, and on Cameron for being pressured into calling the referendum by UKIP– both in the name of party politics- then not setting a proper majority and allowing fearmongering and lies to hog the debate.

 

For the impact in relation to Ireland, see this blog. 

But the short version is that Northern Ireland has become a polarised, two-party Government after the collapse of the SDLP and UUP. The DUP have the upper hand and could keep the Conservatives in power. At what cost? See the blog to find out.

 

Scotland

  • Scottish voters have basically stuffed it for Labour¬†or for any kind of progressive alliance¬†by voting ‘blue’- horribly this was put forward as an tactical option by Scottish Labour!¬†ūüôĄ¬†Surely Scottish LP leader Kezia Dugdale’s political future is now in jeopardy?
  • So the Scottish referendum being an issue went along the lines of polling (with SLP prodding) and with this vote polarisation, the Scots seemed to prefer a Unionist vote over a Labour one.
  • The SNP were coming into this election on an unprecedented high so some losses were expected, but this many was a shock.
  • Then in a move that was not entirely unexpected, Davidson leader of the Scottish Conservatives,¬†could be allegedly making move to distance herself from the English Conservatives’ election car crash.¬†While this would clearly be 99% an¬†intra-party power grab, and she cares little for the body rights of women else she would have opposed the ‘rape clause‘, as a lesbian she could make it about a protest over LBGT issues, as the DUP have been seen to be rabidly against them.¬†Maybe she should check out May’s LGBT voting record, eh. ūü§Ēūü§Ēūü§Ē¬†This decision, if she is making it, breaks the basics of an association that has existed for over 50 years. And it would be massive– while they’d still take the whip from the Commons their seats would not ‘count’ in the Conservative majority. So even with the DUP seats, May would not have a majority– and a national party split is also highly significant. In¬†2011, Davidson opposed rival Murdo Fraser when they called for the separation of the Scottish Conservatives¬†to establish a new centre-right party in Scotland. But times, and politics change- so we will need to watch this space and see if it happens.

Wales

  • Wales ended up with 28 seats for Labour, which was a gain of 3 (49% of the vote share) which they took from the Conservatives. Plaid took the Lib Dems’ final seat.
  • Turnout was up at 68.8% and the seats now look like this
  • Labour considers this to be a “fantastic” result in the general election in Wales after the three vital seat gains in Gower, Cardiff North and Vale of Clwyd.
  • Now they need to thank Corbyn for their rise and stop being such bad Bl**rites in Government, as Plaid leader Leanne Wood often raised during the leaders’ debates.
  • The Conservatives lost their push for the Bridgend and Wrexham seats,bringing the Labour total to 28 seats, three more than 2015.
  • The results represent a huge blow to the Conservatives who had hoped to make big gains across Wales in the snap election ahead of B*exit negotiations. Wales voted to leave in many areas but it did not equate to wanting or trusting the Conservatives to deliver it.

England.

  • England has become once more a polarised two party system¬†(for the first time since the 70s.)
  • Looking at the voting numbers, a better, fairer system of voting is long overdue.
  • It is confounding that 42.4% voted¬†Conservative as only 5% of the country truly benefit from them.
  • Many UKIP voters came (back) to Labour, more than commentators expected, but as I have been saying in the blogs. Nuttall has resigned as leader, and this could mean the return of the oily, noisy Farage
  • Labour ‘centrists’ are having to backtrack on their anti-Corbyn stance, publicly at least.
  • May might very well be ‘for the chop’; if she stays she will have to soften her stubborn and uncompromising style of ‘leadership’. However, she¬†appears to have said she will not be resigning and will ‘work with’ the Conservatives having the most seats, despite losing a 22% majority and seeing it reduced to 2%. This whole process smacks of meh (again!). One bright side is that eight of her Cabinet did not retain their seats. Their position is not tenable and her insistence on staying actually helped the pound to tank against the dollar.
  • I realised at 5:30 a.m. that I forgot to put UKIP on here, but as I suspected, I don’t need to ūüėČ
  • It looks like most of the pollsters apart from Survation and Yougov might need to close their doors.
  • In the final minutes of the results, Cornwall, as talked about in the last election blog, became pivotal- and Devon too. Only they could stop a possible Conservative/DUP ‘alliance’. But while many of them the polls showed to be moving away from traditional ‘blue’ voting, those ‘undecideds’ meant only Plymouth Sutton escaped their clutches. Exeter was a Labour hold.
  • The Conservatives lost because their campaign and their manifesto were s**t;¬†Labour’s was the opposite; and most Conservative MPs agree to varying extents.
  • The BBC, the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party and right wing MSM need to have a real rethink about how they present the ‘news’ and ‘dissent’ from now on. It was amazing how Labour pulled it back after two years of a hatchet job on the party and especially on Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. But I lay ‘blame’ as their feet for having to overcome such an artificially produced disapproval levels- with smears, obfuscations, lies, terror tactics and general all round f*ckery.
  • A notable movement away from kneejerk politics seems to have taken place, in England and Wales at any rate, something that was a major part of Corbyn’s campaign. It is something that many, in all parties, could do with learning too. It will be hard as the MSM has trained many to jump high and foam‚ĄĘ on command. It will also be hard because many Corbyn supporters are so used to being attacked and abused that some have taken refuge in kneejerking in response.
  • In a hung Parliament the current Government will be allowed the first chance to form another, whilst still being ‘in power’; if they can’t then the rest of Parliament can put in a vote of no confidence in them. Now there are lots of reasons why the other parties might vote for or against that. If they vote against the Conservatives and then they can’t form an government, minority or otherwise, there might have to be another general election¬†ūüėϬ†and Conservative MP Rees-Mogg let that cat out of the bag when he mentioned an October (re)election. (Which hasn’t happened since 1974.) This suggests they know they will not be able to form a Government with the co-operation of anyone else. And Labour have seized that opportunity to use what would have been their proposal should they have won to present a minority government option-on a deal by deal basis- alongside whatever May comes up with– time will tell as to how that pans out.

 

Did May think, in her most sweat-drenched nightmares that she would have to overtly¬†dance with unapologetic Loyalist extremists instead of giving backhanders behind closed doors like her mentor, Thatcher,¬†to keep her grip on the Conservatives’ fading power? Is she so blind that she’s prepared to actually make the world burn in her drive to revoke the Human Rights Act all just so she can still keep her pants in the drawer at Number 10?

Why, when she insisted that the loss of six seats to Labour would remove her mandate and grasp on the premiership (think number 10, not football) does the loss of almost three times as many not?

And did Dugdale think, in her misguided push for division in Scotland, that she would not be complicit?

 

Parliament is back in session on 13/06/17. The Opposition MUST have a plan ready to overthrow the pact of pandemonium of the Conservatives and the DUP. 

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